Tag: #macroeconomics
How too much liquidity is distorting oil prices
The U.S. E&P business is in a classic vicious cycle… Too much capital markets liquidity allows E&P companies to continue drilling… Which in turn keeps a lid of prices… Some companies are losing money on every barrel, and trying to make it up on volume… Bradley Olson of the Wall Street Journal has the story: […]
Reading between the lines on bullish econ news
Greg Ip, veteran columnist for the Wall Street Journal, is using the R Word = Recession… All the preconditions exist…Why Soaring Assets and Low Unemployment Mean It’s Time to Start Worrying…
Flat curve flashes warnings for US economy
Jeff Sommer of the New York Times has a very clear new article Clouds Are Forming Over the Bond Market… The most reliable signal of a coming recession is an inverted yield curve… We’re getting closer…
The Sasquatch of macro indicators
Economic theory says that there is a perfect “neutral interest rate” where everything stays in line… Mohamed A. El-Erian discusses this in his Bloomberg opinion piece What You Should Know About r*… There’s just one small problem… “r* is not directly observable”… This means that the correct level is only know with 20/20 hindsight…
NY Post floats the ‘R’ word
The New York Post is asking the right question today: A New Recession?… With some good observations by Aparna Mathur, an AEI resident scholar… The U.S. birth rate is down… Immigration is down… New family formation is down… Older people are consuming less because they are concerned they may outlive their retirement savings… And labor […]
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